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| Program group | Approximate share | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Business and commercial | 17% | Visa internal classification |
| Other volume | 83% | 100% − 17%; rounded remainder |
Stablecoins are moving further into an everyday business problem: getting money from one place to another. Visa’s October 1 release puts business and commercial activity at approximately 17% of its stablecoin-linked card volume. That is a concrete adoption signal within a defined set of card programs. [1]
For the crypto market, the useful question goes beyond transaction counts. Who earns the fees, who holds the reserves, and which assets actually participate in the economics? A payment can use blockchain infrastructure without creating much value for the token an investor happens to own.
Three places the money can flow
A useful way to research this theme is to separate the businesses serving the payment from the assets traded around it. Our interpretation is that the strongest evidence comes from following an actual economic link rather than treating every crypto project as a beneficiary.
The issuer
Reserve assets and distribution costs
Circle describes USDC reserves including bank deposits, short-dated Treasuries and overnight Treasury repurchase agreements. Reserve income is an issuer business channel; holding a payment stablecoin does not establish a right to that income. [3]
The network
Transaction fees and token mechanisms
On Ethereum, gas is paid in ETH. The base fee is burned and the priority fee goes to validators. Those mechanisms connect usage to ETH, but the size of that connection depends on actual fees. [4]
The payment provider
Customers, service and pricing
Wallets, processors and other providers can compete for the customer relationship. For investors, the questions are what customers pay, what the service costs and how much margin remains after partners take their share.
The token holder
A separate value-capture test
Check whether a token pays for a needed service, secures the network, or has a documented fee mechanism. A governance role, marketing partnership or rising transaction count alone does not settle its investment value.
This distinction matters for SpecCoins’ search for overlooked developments. A smaller project can attract attention through a new payment integration, but a useful research lead still needs evidence that its token benefits. Network adoption, company revenue and token-holder returns are separate things to measure.
More activity does not guarantee more token value
Ethereum’s fee rules provide a specific mechanism to examine. Scaling can make transactions cheaper, which is useful for payments. It also means an increase in transaction count cannot automatically be translated into an equal increase in fee spending. [4]
Our market interpretation is that investors should compare activity with the economics per transaction. Track fees paid, token issuance, the portion burned or otherwise captured, and the role of intermediaries. A fast-growing network can face low margins, while token emissions or unlocks can add supply at the same time.
Competition creates another uncertainty. A payment provider can choose among networks and settlement arrangements. An announced pilot is weaker evidence than sustained live use. Before calling a token undervalued, check its supply, current valuation, documented rights and realistic demand assumptions. This article does not make that claim about ETH or any other asset.
Interest rates reach the stablecoin business
Stablecoin economics also connect to monetary policy. BIS researchers distinguish returns linked to reserve assets from returns generated by exchange activity. The former tend to follow policy rates; the latter can be more volatile. Those are different sources of remuneration, with different risks. [6]
Our interpretation is that lower short-term rates can reduce the income available from a given pool of interest-bearing reserves, even while payment activity grows. Higher rates can support that income while raising financing costs elsewhere. Circulation, operating costs and commercial arrangements still matter; interest rates alone do not determine an issuer’s profit.
For a stablecoin user, the practical distinction is between a payment asset and a separate yield product. A reward offered by a platform should be researched on its own terms, including who pays it, how it is generated and what can happen if the platform or its counterparties fail.
The wider economy: payments, banks and confidence
Stablecoin growth can redirect money among bank deposits, Treasury securities and other permitted reserve assets. The BIS explains that the effect on bank funding depends on how reserves are invested and how the resulting funds move through the financial system. It is not a simple one-dollar reduction in bank lending for each dollar of stablecoins issued. [5]
Our economic interpretation is that a useful payment service can reduce friction for businesses when it improves settlement, access or reconciliation. The full cost still includes conversion, compliance, custody and cashing out. Benefits should be measured against the existing payment route rather than assumed from the word “blockchain.”
“Businesses aren't looking for new payment technologies for the sake of innovation.”
Visa’s business payments release · October 1, 2026 [1]
Confidence in the payment asset is part of the economic story too. The BIS discusses how reserve and liquidity arrangements can transmit stress into traditional finance. Reserve disclosure helps users assess backing, but it does not eliminate redemption, custody or operational risk. [5]
The Federal Reserve’s September 24 announcement adds a regulatory development to watch. It proposed rules for Board-supervised payment stablecoin issuers, covering matters including reserves and an application process. These are proposals with a defined supervisory scope, not final requirements for every stablecoin worldwide. [2]
The SpecCoins perspective: follow the evidence next
- Confirm real use. Separate live payment activity from pilots, announcements and transfers that do not represent a business payment.
- Trace the token connection. Verify the asset, network and contract identity, then identify the documented mechanism through which usage could affect demand, fees or supply.
- Watch the next measurable change. Follow disclosed volume, fees, reserve reports and regulatory decisions. A headline is a starting point for research, not proof of a near-term price catalyst.
- Price the risks. Include liquidity, depegging, custody, bridges, competition and dilution. Strong adoption can coexist with a falling token price.
Stablecoins becoming payment rails creates a useful research route into crypto infrastructure and the economy. For SpecCoins readers, the opportunity is to find an overlooked, verifiable link between use and value, then test whether the market price leaves room for the risks.